By Afolayan Adebiyi
It is no gainsaying the fact that the outcome of the August 15, Governorship election in Osun State will determine the expiry of the political careers of many of the gladiators currently prowling the political landscape of the State. Presently, the State is boiling. The volume of the noise of the propagandists from all the camps are at the premium. And no one is giving any ground, not an inch. No one is suffering any fool’s. All the combatants were in a war mood. No one is hiding this. From the street of Iwo, in the West to Ila Orangun, in the North, from Ikire down to the border towns of Esa Oke, Ipetu Ijesa, from the political hot bed of Ile Ife through the stoic State capital Oshogbo, back to the other flanks of Okuku, the political temperature is unbelievably high. And the barometer keeps pointing at the god-fathers fighting the last battle of their lives, sustenance of their political legacy.
But with the tense atmosphere, claims and counter-claims by all the opposing camps, what would be the acceptable outcome for the two million, three hundred and thirty-three thousands, two hundred and thirty-three (2,333,233) registered voters that are expected to troop out on Saturday to cast their vote to elect either renew the mandate of the incumbent Asiwaju Ademola Adeleke of Accord Party or give a fresh mandate to either Asiwaju Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress or Najeem Salaam (Iwaloye) of Advanced Democratic Congress?.
Four former Governors of the State were in the mix. They are: Chief Bisi Akande (1999 –2003), Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola (2003 – 2010), Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola (2010 – 2018) and Alhaji Adegoyega Oyetola (2018 – 2022). To these four elders of the State, the outcome of the August 15 governorship election will determined their continued relevancy in the scheme of things in the political space of the State and in the country, at large.
The old guards all have anointed candidate in the race. While Pa Bisi Akande, and Alhaji Adegboue Oyetola jointly presented a former Commissioner for Finance, Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress (APC) as their candidate, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola threw his old ‘general’ in the Advanced Democratic Congress (ADC), a former Speaker of the State House of Assembly during his governorship, Hon. Najeem Salam, into the mix. After porting from his Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the little know Accord Party, the incumbent Governor, Asiwaju Nurudeen Jackson Ademola Adeleke is trying to re-paint the colour of the political landscape of the State.
The Governor, Adeleke was forced to moved to the relatively obscure platform, Accord Party, because of the intractable crisis in his Peoples Democratic party (PDP). Since he moved into the new platform, most of the old PDP members in the State had collapsed their structures into PDP/Accord.
Meanwhile, come 15 August, fourteen candidates (14) will be on the ballot contesting to become the fifth civilian governor of the State. Curiously, both Labour Party (LP) and the once almighty Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), would not be on the ballot. Internal contradictions have almost consumed the two parties in the State.
The remaining fourteen candidates are:
All Progressives Congress (APC): Asiwaju Bola Oyebamiji (AMBO);
Accord Party (A): Governor Ademola Adeleke;
African Democratic Congress (ADC): Hon. Najeem Salaam (Iwaloye);
Action Alliance (AA): Hon. Farinloye Olarenwaju
African Action Congress (AAC): Mr. Esan Olajide;
African Democratic Party (ADP): Adeagbo Opawoye;
All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA): Adesina Adeyemi-Doro; (He has announced his withdrawal from the race and now backs the APC’s candidate, Asiwaju Oyebamiji)
People’s Redemption Party (PRP): Hon. Saliu Oyelami;
Young Progressives Party (YPP): Hon. Ogunsakin Olalekan;
Zenith Labour Party (ZLP): Hon. Adefemi Adesuyi;
Allied People Movement (APM): Hon. Adewale Adebayo;
Action Peoples Party (APP): Hon. Clement Adesuyi;
Boot Party (BP), Mr. Masilo Adeleke; and the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP): Taofeek Adeleke.
The State is geopolitically structured into three Senatorial Districts; Osun West, Osun Central and Osun East Senatorial Districts. Also, there are a total of 30 Local Government Areas (LGAs), plus one Area Council in the State.
Osun Central Senatorial District:
This district consists of ten (10) Local Government Areas: Boluwaduro, Boripe, Ifedayo, Ifelodun, Ila, Irepodun, Odo Otin, Olorunda, Orolu, and Osogbo.
This district have produced three former governors. Pa Bisi Akande, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola and Alhaji Gboyega Oyetola.
Expectedly, this will be the main battleground and the results from this district may determine who wins eventually. APC and its candidate, Asiwaju Bola Oyebamiji are licking their lips, banking on a massive votes from here.
Their claim is that many towns within the district do not feel the presence of the Ademola Adeleke’s government. They cited the dilapidated health facilities across the state, and more importantly, the attempted ceding of Abeere, Osogbo, to Ede by the Adeleke government.
Also, many are still aggrieved by what they called the “vindictive Executive Order that sacked some kings within the Central Senatorial District”.
The last stroke, was the former governor of the State, Prince Oyinlola open support of the APC’s candidate.
The Accord Party candidate, Ademola Adeleke, will, on the other hand, rely heavily on the Federal House of Representatives members and State Assembly members from the district.
But stacked against him is the civil servants he sacked at the inception of his administration, and many of the substandard projects that littered the Districts.
Already, the Local Government structure is out of his control, therefore, Adeleke may struggle in the district.
Osun East Senatorial District
This district consists of the 10 Local Government Areas in Ife/Ijesa: Atakunmosa East, Atakunmosa West, Ife Central, Ife East, Ife North, Ife South, Ilesa East, Ilesa West, Obokun, and Oriade.
This is where Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola hails from. The districts also boasts of about four deputy governors. But the District may just be for APC because of the evergreen legacy of the Cicero of Esa Oke, late Chief Bola Ige.
The governor, Ademola Adeleke will have to battle it out with Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola’s inspired ADC for the splinter votes remaining.
The full support that the Aregbesola’s people gave to Adeleke in 2022, would not be there this time around, as they are now firmly rooted in ADC.
Also, with the ebullient Otunba Iyiola Omisore openly campaigning for the APC, the old negative sentiments may be gone.
APC looks set to clinch the district with a wide margin.
Osun West Senatorial District
This is the real battle ground of all the three main candidates. They are all from the district. This district consists of 10 Local Government Areas: Aiyedaade, Aiyedire, Ede North, Ede South, Egbedore, Ejigbo, Irewole, Isokan, Iwo, and Ola Oluwa.
Governornor Ademola Adeleke and Najeem Salaam are from Ede Federal Constituency, Asiwaju Bola Oyebamiji is from Irewole Federal Constituency.
The main theme of the campaign in this area is the forceful takeover of Ebedi land by Ede, and other communal clashes believed to be sponsored by Ede recently, and the neglect of other towns in the district.
The noise of “Edenization agenda campaign”, is even louder here than in other districts. But Adeleke is only confident of winning Ede South, Ede North, while Egbedore and Ejigbo may go with Oyebamiji of APC. The three parties stand equal chance here, and may run neck-to-neck at the end of the polls.
While the spotlight is obviously on the former governors as god-fathers, the direct implications of the coming August 15 governorship election are huge for some top politicians in the State. The Spokesman of the Imole Campaign Committee (IMCC), Mr. Pelumi Olajengbesi clearly understands this great implications that the outcome of the elections clearly placed on the various stalwarts across the State. He was quoted as saying while urging his supporters to further intensify their efforts in Obokun/Oriade Federal Constituency towards securing a good win the coming election. He said “if we loose the governorship election, then the other tickets, Senate, House of Representatives and the State House of Assembly would become a toilet papers”. This is a truism, a reality of the repercussion the loss of the governorship election would carry.
But the young and inexperienced Olajengbesi is battling a old war-horse for the seat at the Federal House of Representatives. Hon. Busayo Oluwole Oke is the candidate of the APC. He was formerly of the PDP with Adeleke and Olajengbesi before moving his massive structure across the Ijesa North Federal Constituency to APC. Besides, he has been in the National Assembly since 2003 till date, save the single term of 2011 -2014, when he was defeated at the polls by the Action Congress of Nigeria candidate, Hon. Agunbiade.
It not only Hon. Wole Oke that is battling to save his political career. Also in the same boat is the effervescent Ile Ife born politician, Senator Iyiola Omisore. His continued relevancy heavily depends on the outcome of the August 15 governorship election in the State. Omisore controlled a huge structure with committed followers across the State, but more particular in his Ife/Ijesa Senatorial District. Despite his hard feelings over the conduct of the screening exercise of the governorship aspirants, where he was screened out, he has aligned fully with his old foe, Pa Bisi Akande to ensure their candidate, Oyebamiji is installed the fifth civilian governor of the State.
Further boosting the chances of Oyebamiji is the reported alignment of former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinloa and his group with his aspiration. The announcement of their alignment coincident with the peace efforts of the President, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu in pacifying all the aggrieved party members in the State and rallying them behind the party’s candidate.
www.focusmagazineonline.com notes that the former governor Adegboya Oyetola is not the type that actively gingered party members; especially those not of his persuasion. But the intervention of the President has bridged the yearning gaps among the party members in the State.
In the African Democratic Coalition (ADC) camp, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola is obviously taking the bull by the horns, knowing fully well that this may be his last dance in the State. His candidate, has been quietly campaigning with his legacy projects and achievements while in office. He too personally led the flag-off of the campaign in Ile Ife on August and was in Iwo on August where he delivered ground breaking speeches.
Speaking in Ejigbo, Egbedore Local Government during the ADC campaign tour on last Friday, Aregbesola dismissed raging the rumours that his party would aligned with one of the two prominent candidates. According to him “such rumours were being spread by rival parties to create doubt and sway voters”.
The former governor insisted that the ADC remains in the race to win and to deliver quality governance to Osun people, not to chase money.
Addressing a large crowd of supporters, the former Minister of Interior said the party was focused and could not be distracted. “We are not in politics for money. We are only after how God will use us to prosper and set people free from bondages, and we won’t derail from that path,” he said.
Aregbesola insisted that the ADC was not in alliance with any party and was confident of victory. To bolster his campaign, former Vice President, Abubarkar Atiku and Senator Dino Melaye had joined the ADC campaign train in the State.
However, the incumbent governor, Asiwaju Ademola Adeleke is throwing everything into his campaign. Shunned of any notable political god-father, he has been joined by his celebrity showbiz star cousin, Davido. He is now relying on the strength of the Adeleke’s dynasty and his scorecards since November 2022, when he assumed the mantle of leadership of the State.
Also, his two wives were on the streets of Oshogbo Monday, leading a band of women in a protest to the State Police Command. Their simple request is “please conduct free, fair and credible election come Saturday 15, August”.
But the noise of his deliberate concentration of governmental personnel, projects, facilities and institutions in his Ede native community has become so loud that a deaf can pick the contents of the message.
Opponents cite the appointments of David (Davido) Adeleke, as Chairman Osun Sport Trust fund., Mr. Gbolahan Adeleke, Special Adviser on Osun Government House Affairs, Mr. Kolade Adeleke , Chairman of Osun State Tourism Board, Mrs. Adenike Folasade Adeleke as Osun Commissioner for Federal Affairs, Mr. Tunji Adeleke, Chairman Osun local government commission and Mr. Gbolahan Adeleke , Special Adviser on Osun Government House Affairs.
They also mentioned his senior brother Dr. Deji Adeleke as the Governor General , while his senior sister, Yeye Dúpẹ́ Adeleke was said to be the “de facto” Commissioner for Works
Aside the noise of nepotism, many of the other projects scattered across the State were said to be poorly build. A particular mention is often made of the recently commissioned LAMECO fly-over. Perhaps, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu have the LAMECO fly-over in mind when her told a group of visiting traditional rulers from the neighbouring Oyo State that the governors should stop building fly-over in a town where there was no numeric vehicular traffics and concentrate on other projects that can impact the masses.
No doubt, the August 15 governorship election is an election of many colours, many variables and many determinants. The Oshogho people are not happy because of the stylist attempt to remove the name Oshogbo from the State Secretariat. Abere where the government of Pa Bisi Akande built the Secretariat is a disputed land between the two communities. It has always been Abere, Oshogbo, but now it is simple, Abere.
The Ife/Ijesa axis particularly are angry that the governor abandoned the are since he was sworn in. Both Hon. Wole Oke, the Director General of the AMBO Campaign Committee, and Senator Francis Adenigba Fadahunsi had been persistent in their criticisms of the neglect of the area by the governor. In almost four years, no single project was sited in Obokun/Oriade local government areas. The four local government of Ilesa township too are suffering the same fate. It is only the Lagere fly-over the Ile Ife people can point to. No more.
www.focusmagazineonline.com investigations reveal that monetary inducement will play a huge role in determining who eventually wins the election. Already Engr. Oluremi Omowaiye, the Spokesman of the AMBO Campaign committee had alleged that Adeleke has started inducing the voters with monetary grants.
First it was alleged that twenty thousand naira (#20,000.00) was credited to the accounts of all the civil servants in the State few days to the election, and secondly, a viral video clip of voters given money and being placed on oath surfaced online.
In another twist, some ten days to the elections the EFCC suddenly placed a “Post No Bill” on the three major accounts of the State government. This drew a loud protestations. Some applauded, some condemned. But soon it was revealed that the anti-graft agency actually sought and obtain a valid Court Order before the big hammer. But in a deft political move, President Bola Tinubu exercised his veto power and order the agency to vacate the order until the after the election. But both the Accountant General and Commissioner for Finance of the State have been declared wanted by the agency.
But worrying to observers is the orgy of violence ongoing in the State. both the Accor/PDP and APC are not giving each other an inch. While Najeem Salaam; and his African Democratic Congress (ADC)’s. god-father, Aregbesole, are watching keenly, the other two prominent parties are trying to outdo themselves in propaganda warfare. While Engr. Oluremi Omowaye, APC’s spokesman was claiming that over thrity (30) members of his party have been reportedly murdered by the thugs loyal to the government of Governor Adeleke. His Accord Party’s counterpart, Olajengbesi however, would not allowed this claim to go unchallenged. He daily painted a picture of a brute intimidation and harassment by the federal agencies. He turned every arrests to political intimidation and every conflicts he blamed on APC, particularly Hon. Wole Oke.
Speaking to www.focusmagazineonline.com over the weekend, a leader of the Accord/PDP in the State said “I can assure you, this governorship election was lost in May. The selection of candidates for the National and State Assembly seats was terrible. Candidates who could win elections for the party were stunted for sycophants and starters, who hardly can face the titans in the opposite side come January. The results will start coming from August. Mark it”.
He recounted the 2022 election that brought in Adeleke as the Governor. He said his then party, PDP defeated Oyetola with 403,371. APC scored 375,027 votes at the election. But he further explained that then the “PDP votes had PDP structure, Adeleke had structure, Aregbesola structure plus the sabotage Buhari and Malami did against the Osun APC”
He stressed further that “today Aregbesola structure is gone. They are fully in ADC. The PDP structure is no more with Adeleke and the Abuja APC is not having that sabotage. Also, Gov. Oyinlola and his PDP faction, Wole Olanipekun, Dotun Babayemi, Senator Ominrin, Hon. Ajilesoro, Senator Fadahunsi, Superkay and Hon. Wole and a host of others in in APC today”. To him, victory may be just out of Adeleke’s hands come Saturday, August 15.
Apparently, governor Adeleke is in a political quandary. Since ex-governor Oyinlola, Alhaji Oyedokun and others pitched their tent with APC, he has no known god-father backing him again. He tried to play a smart casino with the endorsement of President Tinubu, but he was out read and out manoeuvred by the wily politicians around the President. His oft repeated cry of “we have endorse President Bola Tinubu for the Presidency” has comes to naught.
He was almost broken into pieces when the Economic and Financial Crime Commission (EFCC) hammer fell on the State bank accounts recently. He was moved to tears, while recounting the series of intimidation he has suffered under the present Federal Government. He could be right to feel bad. After all, he was in Lagos home of the President with his senior brother, Dr. Deji Adeleke and cousin, David Adeleke, popularly called Davido. He did a follow up visit to the Presidency in Aso Rock to see the President. At the end of the visitations, he was sure he has both the membership and automatic ticket of the ruling APC in his back pocket. The President was said to had directed him to liaise with the local chapter in Oshogbo. He was full of joy, quite optimistic. He came back approached the leaders, but met a stone wall. His membership of the party was outrightly rejected. Down and broken, he sought refuge in an obscured Accord Party.
Ever since he has been battling to make a political statement that he could survive on his family, Adeleke’s dynasty name, rather than a god-father.
While Bola Oyebamiji and Najeem Salaam rely heavily on the cousins provided by their god-fathers, Adeleke now relies on his politically reticent brother, his political infant cousin, Davido and perhaps, the distant names of his father, Balogun Adeleke and his brother, Isiaka, the first executive governor of Osun State.
This could explained why he packed all members of his family into government positions. About six members of the nucleus Adeleke family are holding important positions in his government.
Strangely, the governor has also parted ways with some the people who were helping him with the technical niceties of governance at the onset. The celebrity journalist/politician, Bashorun Dele Momodu has been noted to be absent from his environment for quite some time. He was said to be the brain behind the government at a point.
Even his endorsement of President Bola Tinubu for a second term is being accepted with a pinch of salt by the Osun State leaders of APC. Speaking for the first time on this last weekend in Iragbiji, former Governor Oyetola derisively said “If you like do 10 endorsement for President Tinubu, you see this August 15th Osun election, APC will win Osun for AMBO in free and fair election”
The Governor is facing some many wild accusations and allegations by stakeholders within the State. Engr. Omowaye, the APC spokesman alleged that was on the ground in Osun do not justify the humongous allocations the State now received from the Federation Account Allocations every month since the inception of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
To his credit, however, the Adeleke administration has tried to bridge the infrastructural gap in the State. He has constructed fly-over bridges to eased vehicular traffics in major towns of Oshogbo and Ile Ife. But some critics would have none of these. They are pointing at the poor quality of the bridges and besides, they are citing the huge allocations that now accrued to the State from the Federal purse.
They claimed that the government of former governor Oyetola in 2022 was receiving about ₦4 billion to ₦6 billion monthly, while the government of Governor Adeleke is now receiving between about ₦12.8 billion to ₦15.5 billion monthly from the Federal Allocation purse.
Meanwhile, both INEC and the Nigerian Police are not given chances for any maleficence in the coming. Already, eight days to the polls the Inspector-General of the Police has removed the State Commissioner of Police, Ibrahim Gotan.
The Inspector-General of Police, Tunji Disu, disclosed that the Commissioner of Police in Osun State, Ibrahim Gotan, was removed from the position due to complaints from politicians ahead of the governorship election slated for August 15, 2026.
According to the IGP, in the place of the commissioner of police is an electoral commissioner of police who will oversee the election.
Speaking at a press briefing, the IGP said the decision followed meetings he had with stakeholders ahead of the election. “For the first time, we introduced the electoral commissioner of police who will be taking charge of the elections earlier, when we noticed that certain groups of politicians and parties were complaining that they no longer trust the commissioner of police. So, the commissioner of police was asked to stand aside while the electoral commissioner of police moved in earlier”.
He disclosed that “the AIG in charge of election will be moving in any moment from now. The Deputy Commissioner of Police, who will be taking charge of the Osun election, will also be moving in. They have specific instructions. We the police are in charge of internal security. We are the lead organisation in charge this election. Yes, we are going to cooperate with other sister agencies who are going to support us during this election,” he said.
According to him 15,000 thousands polemen have been mobilized to provide security in the State during the election. They are expected to join forces with the military men to man all the pooling booths across the State. Also in the mix as INEC’s ad-hoc staff are 30,000 Youth Corpers.
Earlier, the IGP, Olatunji Disu, had deployed Erale Samuel Etaifo to the State as Commissioner of Police (Elections) to oversee the security architecture for the forthcoming governorship election. The Police boss had said the deployment was in line with “his unwavering commitment to neutrality, professionalism and the conduct of free, fair and credible elections”.
Therefore the two million, three hundred and thirty-three, two hundred and thirty-three (2,333,233) registered voters, across the 30 local governments and one Area Council, save the Local Council Development Areas (LCDA) created by the Rauf Aregbesola’s administration in 2015, queued up to either give the incumbent governor a fresh mandate or to elect a new governor for the State, the entire lens of the political microscope of the nation will be fixated on the happenings in the State.
The President, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and his party, APC will be eager to secure a cushioning victory. This will give them the full assurance of going into the General Elections early 2027 with full confidence, while the Adeleke’s dynasty, will see this election as a final determination of their political hegemony in the State. Once the governor loses his seat, the political influence of the Adeleke’s dynasty will surely start fading into oblivion. And for Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola and his ADC, the election will determine his place in the comity of the political greats in the country. His present position as the Secretary of the party, notwithstanding, his loss in the election will reduce his influence and leverage within the party grossly.
However, with the threats by the Governor that a repeat of the political violence that rocked the old Ondo State in 15 August, 1983 might be a child play if the election is not deemed to be free and fair, observers spoken to by www.focusmagazineonline.com in the State warned all the security agencies to be at alert. They believed that no results declare, except outright victory would be satisfactory to the Adeleke’s camp.
Feelers from the APC camp too revealed that the party is set for “a crushing victory come Saturday. He blamed the sabotaged by Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola’s The Original Progressives (TOP) for the defeat of 2022.
